endobj Prom the present state of knowledge, drought prediction is difficult, if not impossible. endobj 137 0 obj Statistical 41 0 obj Geografiska Annaler Series A Physical Geography. This study examines rainfall variability in the North Central region including the Federal Capital Territory Abuja using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) application. Studies on regional climate modeling have mostly focused on Southern Africa and West Africa, with very few studies in Zambia. 112 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (dataavailability.1) >> The review shows that although uncertainties exist in the design of models, and parameters, soil, climate and management options, the climate would adversely affect maize yield production in SSA. It is concluded that, in Zambia drought is a chronic phenomenon which requires pre-planned measures for minimizing its impacts. We conclude that local climate in both areas has changed over the period investigated. Continentally, two principal spatial 53 0 obj An in-depth investigation of the collected material might prove useful when planning training loads for work on special stamina. endobj drought and plays an important role in the relationship between vulnerability and risk. rainfall and temperature between1983 and 2013, assessed how these trends of climate variability have affected farmers’ perception in climate variability and also explored small-scale farmers’ adaptation strategies. For the region 109 0 obj Moreover rainfall variability is associated with too much rainfall or decrease in rainfall 33 0 obj However, this has led to a tendency to marginalise indigenous knowledge as it is considered unimportant in this process (Belfer et al., 2017; Lesperance, 2017; Whitfield et al., 2015). From spotting and reading the position and shape of the ‘new moon’ to the interpretative correctness of its symbolism in “applied traditional climatology,” and from rain-making rituals to conservation of wetlands and forests. Ayansina et al. 117 0 obj 5 0 obj In this regard, we think that indigenous knowledge is just as important as scientific knowledge and the two must be integrated through multiple evidence base approach for climate change adaptation and mitigation. 89 0 obj The result indicates that a combination of rainfall and rainy days brings additional information on drought intensity. of 1087 stations. nd mapping of small dams in Southern and Lusaka provinces; producing bathymetric and sedimentation maps; and determination of the diversity and abundance of macroinvertebrates on selected small reservoirs. Climate change impact on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using crop simulation and statistical downscaling models: A review, Drivers of smallholder farmers' crop production, with special focus on maize, in Choma District, Zambia, Seasonal and intra-seasonal rainfall and drought characteristics as indicators of climate change and variability in Southern Africa: a focus on Kabwe and Livingstone in Zambia, Climate Variability and Change in Southern Zambia: 1910 to 2009, Assessing seed breeders recommended maize varieties for southern zambia-How small-scale farmers have adapted, Climate change adaptation: Linking indigenous knowledge with western science for effective adaptation, Characterization of Droughts in Humid Subtropical Region, Upper Kafue River Basin (Southern Africa), Trends of Extreme Events in Precipitation and Temperature during the 1963-2012 Period at Mt Makulu, Zambia, Changing flows in southern Africa and its relationships to rainfall variations, Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Technologies into the Integrated Small Towns Water Supply and Sanitation Project Final Report Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Technologies into the Integrated Small Towns Water Supply and Sanitation Project. (Summary and future directions) A formula in terms of the extremal severity and the T-year return period has been suggested similar to the flood frequency formulae, commonly cited in hydrological texts. (Evaporation) Provides an overview to the preceding chapters in the volume. 88 0 obj However, economic factors such as limited access to fertilizer and seed, late delivery of inputs and delayed payments by the Food Reserve Agency for maize, lack of markets, affected maize productivity. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.5.1) >> Sustainable livelihood diversification should be encouraged as it would result in diversified income sources for farmers and lessen the pressure on maize as the most important source of household income. Data was analyzed using INSTAT version 3.36 software. endobj specific framework is that of multifractals. 9 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (abstract.1) >> principle which can be exploited to model hydrological processes and endobj With coefficients of variation greater than 0.30 for MAM (March, April, May) and OND endobj << /S /GoTo /D (section.7) >> endobj In the recent past, Mt Makulu had experienced droughts in the seasons 1964/65, 1983/84, 1987/88, 1991/92, 1994/95 and 1997/98 and a high intensity of floods in 2007/08, 2009/2010 (see Fig. Despite the annual maize production increase of 230.8 t/year, farmers in Choma continued to experience food insufficiency as their maize retained for household consumption could not sustain their 185.2 kg per capita maize requirement. 121 0 obj All rights reserved. It is precursor of famine and is difficult to monitor due to its slow progression. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.2) >> 124 0 obj 37 0 obj This is done through identification a, The study sought to determine the magnitude of seasonal rainfall variability in Kwale It can be seen from this analysis that the global ocean is undergoing a gradual but significant warming of ˜0.1 °C per year, whereas the trend obtained for the same period from conventional data sources (ships and buoys) is about half that magnitude1. (Scales in urban hydrology) which show a strong opposition between equatorial and subtropical endobj It utilized archival and recent rainfall and temperature data for the period 1910 to 2009 and 1945 to 2009, respectively. endobj This paper addresses two fundamental questions on climate change and variability: to what extent has climate changed and/or varied over years in two districts of different agro-ecological regions or zones and how do any changes differ between the zones or districts? << /S /GoTo /D (competinginterests.1) >> The Daily Temperature Range (DTR) significantly increased annually and monthly resulting in a linear slope of 0.031 and 0.003, respectively. endobj We then discuss endobj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.1) >> t���gځQ��0�������n'�T� j�,cd��_!���H���빵Ӆ���S�~�5��@���7B�c>��.�U*P# ��u��˽B�`� endobj fundamental property of the non-linear equations: scale invariance. 64 0 obj endobj Climate Variability refers to variation in the mean states, on all temporal scales heart rate after 60-second and 240-second tests of the subjects. management, researches and technological or operational development face 8 0 obj Additionally, results showed a significant increase in absolute indices as a function of temperature. In this paper however, we attempt to supplement these arguments by providing specific and contextualised evidence of indigenous knowledge linked to climate change adaptation. 148 0 obj Worldwide local climate variability can influence peoples’ decisions with consequences for their social, economic, political and personal conditions, and effects on their lives and livelihoods. endobj 92 0 obj 16 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.1) >> are derived using a linear correlation method to assess the similarity This study examines effect of rainfall variability on crops production for the periods of 1990 and 2009 in Oyo State, Nigeria. Rain is a major component of the water cycle and is responsible for depositing most of the … There were much higher heat spell events during DJF and SON with probability occurrence of 0.78 and 0.98 at p<0.05, respectively. (Acknowledgements) We conclude that integration of such unique and specific indigenous knowledge systems into other evidence bases of knowledge, could be one of the best ways to the more effective and sustainable implementation of climate change adaptation strategies among target indigenous communities. One of the main aspects of drought planning and mitigation includes hazard assessment, which describes the physical nature of, Introduction. endobj This study conducted in Southern Zambia assessed climatic variability in the region for the purpose of determining occurrence of climate change over the past 100 years. but I am still writing up our last research studies in the UK, Kuwait and calcareous rivers (worldwide), Characterization of Rainfall variability in Kwale County Kenya JERNMs pp24, Meteorological drought analysis over India using analytical framework on CPC rainfall time series, Detailed analysis of a 240-second cycle ergometric test in middle-distance runners aged 16-19, The Reliability of Rainfall over the Sudan. 96 0 obj 1997).This strong interannual variability is related to a variety of climate modes of variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and the southern annular mode (SAM). To extend this work, a 78-year long, high-resolution (6 min) rainfall dataset (1925–2002) from Melbourne has been used. endobj endobj It is interesting to note that the agreement between the two maps was <50 % in all the 12 years. 25 0 obj (October, November, December), the study findings indicate that Kwale County receives rainfall are apparent. This study was conducted on 27 Sahelian climatic stations in three countries (Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Senegal). 100 0 obj However, while Livingstone seems to have experienced more droughts and unreliable rainfall, Kabwe experienced a bigger change in both rainfall and rainy season duration. 72 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.3) >> (Spatial variability of basin characteristics) flooding events requires a model of the natural (unperturbed) area is highly variable and it is therefore important that this information is made available to It seems increasingly likely that the cause is an enhanced greenhouse effect. 52 0 obj It is possible that it represents a natural climate change. The maximum warmest daily temperature (TXx) index showed a predominant increase in the monthly and annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature at Mt Makulu. climate dynamics. The level and variability of rainfall are important determinants of persistent food insecurity and household vulnerability (Demeke, Keil and Zeller 2011). endobj Ethiopia provides a good example of the influence of climate variability endobj Analysis revealed that rainfall variability, indicated by increasing 11-year coefficients of variation (CVs) for selected stations and decreasing rainfall trends observed in southern Zambia after 1975, was not extraordinary as similar conditions were experienced before the turn of 19th century. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.3) >> << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.4) >> present report all the analysis of observed rainfall patterns, trends and variability have been done based on recent past 30 years (1989-2018) that will help to have idea of the recent changes for climate change adaptation and management by the state authorities. the high variability across a county or city. Assessment of the most suitable of the recommended maize varieties for the region was done by analyzing qualitative data according to themes relating to adaptability to climatic variations, disease resistance, drought tolerance as well as potential yields. 133 0 obj 17 0 obj the observation scale and yield natural hazards such as floods or Denying famine a future: concluding remarks. endobj On the basis The Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) for daily temperature and precipitation were analyzed for Mt Makulu (Latitude: 15.550° S, Longitude: 28.250° E, Elevation: 1200 meter) in Zambia. We endobj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.3) >> 28 0 obj The net potential effect of severe changes in rainfall pattern is the disruption in crop production leading to food insecurity, joblessness, and poverty. Hydrology and more generally sciences involved in water resources endobj reliability of rain-cultivation in the country. endobj range – the Variety Twenty stations are used to calculate the standard deviations and the coefficients of variations. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.2) >> This study showed that a comprehensive assessment of droughts by integrating multiple variables provided a versatile tool for drought monitoring and mitigation. 136 0 obj (Hydrological processes) endobj 69 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (sistatement.1) >> endobj We further conclude that migrants into Kabwe and other inhabitants are not any safer from climate change risk. (Characterizing rainfall events according to their spatial and temporal scale) << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.1.2) >> endobj ���˓ �e����g�v��vd��g��%A?��[��^�m����$�#���i�������x���vo:n}\��i�g�;���ٮB9�z������un��a���[email protected] ,�6y�%Q�(��W>PKH?6i(���oa�~�������g7��Ћ�hd�y�+�ظ� �DvK��w�v�:�S/���:�%Q�[1��� �1�'� r/�F��T��U-z]�ւ���5jkJ�?1���o�L}�ʳ�ڴ��ww��;K�Hd|���� ��\ٔͽ)����(,�6�fh�J��g)a�n�g��DnGG!��Ep?�ޫR����Qu�ZCOD�[email protected]�^�2r� O��o����K���a�cY���^��fpߙ��=?�@J/��/��K����>�Ye�q�[{�Z�k�&wy��;Y�z"\mwF��U The study further analysed how socio-economic factors influence small-scale farmers’ adaptation to climate variability in The results showed that: (1) all indices were able to detect temporal variability of major drought events in a humid subtropical basin in Southern Africa; (2) SWAT successfully simulated runoff and soil moisture although soil moisture requires further calibration to increase accuracy; (3) the average duration and intensity for meteorological droughts at three-month time scale were lower but frequencies were higher compared to agricultural and hydrological droughts at 3- and 12-month aggregates; and (4) drought events exhibited a negative trend as evaluated by Mann-Kendall on SPEI, indicating an increase in drought severity, and correlation analysis between SPEI and SRI revealed that SPEI at 9-15 months has a strong link with hydrological conditions. Beside this, a review of the climate status was done. The present study employs understanding drought and analyzing its various parameters such as rainfall. endobj This has been built upon the climate change models resulting in various scenarios developed based on the changing pattern and trends arising from the variability of meteorological parameters … endobj President Kenneth Kaunda committed himself and his Government to success in the forthcoming harvest when he told Parliament in January: ‘I am not prepared to see a recurrence of what happened last year when thousands of bags of maize remained uncollected in various depots’; the state would ensure that the agencies involved in the collection of produce improved their performance. 1. define and distinguish between climate variability and climate change, 2. understand the enhanced greenhouse effect and its consequences on climate, 3. understand climate change scenarios for Bangladesh, and 4. analyse climate change uncertainties in drought-prone areas. droughts. endobj n Climatological normal – 30-year average of a weather variable. 125 0 obj (Opportunities and limitations of weather radars) 57 0 obj endobj Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Climate is a key input of rain-fed agriculture. 49 0 obj Results also showed that the daily mean temperature (TMm) and mean daily maximum temperature (TXm) had increased from 1963-2012. The development of numerical models which allow the incorporation of not only climatic factors but also man's impact on the natural environment, offers some ray of hope that the general circulation models (GCMs) may help to improve the techniques of drought prediction. (Spatial and temporal variability in urban hydrological models) They are based on a endobj The potential effect of climate change on maize production can be studied using crop models such as agricultural production simulator (APSIM) and decision support system for agrotechnology (DSSAT) models. Climate variability and change has been the most important determinant of crop yields in Kenya and other parts of the world. This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. endobj 21 0 obj The 1972-73 El Nino off the west coast of South America is a good case in point. Climate variability can cause abrupt disruptions, such as floods, droughts, or tropical storms. Yet, knowledge systems rarely develop in isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other. 149 0 obj The decade from 2000 to 2009 showed the highest variability with a coefficient of 0.287. The study uses CPC rainfall time series of 12 years, 2001–2012, during the major rainfall period, i.e., southwest monsoon (June–September) over India at 10 km × 10 km pixel for the meteorological drought analysis. Are used to identify meteorological droughts as floods or droughts the highest variability with a positive linear trend (